Without a Tout: How to Pick a Winning Team

Without a Tout is a practical, no-nonsense guide to building models for team sports.  Making predictive models accessible to the nontechnical reader, the book describes a class of handicapping methods based upon careful analysis of sports data and thorough testing of model performance. There is recreational betting---this can be fun.  There is betting out of necessity or perceived necessity, induced perhaps by poverty or addiction---this is sad.  And there is rational betting---betting when it makes sense to do so---this is a test of wit.  Without a Tout is about betting when it it makes sense to do so, when the odds are in our favor.  Data-driven models presented in this book show us when the odds are in our favor. Applications of models and good modeling practice go well beyond the world of sports.  They have relevance to any competitive arena.  We can predict which product will be chosen, what consumers are willing to pay, or which firm will win in the marketplace.  As long as there are relevant data from the past and ways of keeping score, we can use models to our advantage.