Beyond the Hotline: Controlling a Nuclear Crisis

From the back cover: Perhaps the most like path to a nuclear war today is through a crisis that escalates out of control because of miscalculation, miscommunication, or accident. With troublespots all over the world, nuclear proliferation, and the danger of nuclear terrorism, the possible scenarios for an unintended war are gradually multiplying. Effective means of crisis control are needed more than ever. An Analysis of past U.S.-Soviet crisis behavior beginning with the Cuban Missile Crisis highlights the critical factors which can skew even the most rational decision-making under pressure and suggests measures which each side can take in advance - separately or jointly - to prevent or control a crisis. Four key attribute of a crisis make it especially dangerous: little time to decide, high stakes, high certainty, and few usable options. These factors press decision-makers to take hasty, often escalatory, action to protect vital interests. Through action and reaction, miscalculation and miscommunication, a runaway crisis and war may result.