Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zon: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War

History

Hornung, Jeffrey W.

Mazarr, Michael J.

Morris, Lyle J.

Binnendijk, Anika

Kepe, Marta

Pezard, Stephanie

Asia

RAND Corporation

In an occupation of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, conventional military intervention by allies would be crucial for the Baltic countries to achieve national independence. But Baltic civilians could play a powerful role in their own defense by pursuing a resistance strategy that imposed costs on the occupier, secured allied support, denied political or economic consolidation, reduced capacity for repression, and expanded popular support.

Civilian-Based Resistance in the Baltic States: Historical Precedents and Current Capabilities

Europe

The authors of this report assess the role of U.S. Army special operations forces (ARSOF) in great-power competition, focusing on the types of activities the United States will need to conduct in competition with Russia and ARSOF?s effectiveness in conducting them, as well as ARSOF?s advantages and disadvantages relative to conventional military forces and the efforts of nonmilitary agencies.

Countering Russia: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition

McCulloch, Caitlin

Watts, Stephen

Jackson, Kimberly

Zeigler, Sean M.

Cheravitch, Joseph

The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military’s Decisionmaking Role in a “Besieged Fortress”

Demus, Alyssa

Lander, Natasha

Evans, Sandra Kay

Grisé, Michelle

Blanc, Alexis A.

Marcinek, Krystyna

Hvizda, Mark

This report--part of a four-volume series--explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Africa; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Africa

Klein, Kurt

Curriden, Christian

Cohen, Raphael S.

Treyger, Elina

Africa

The authors examine Ukrainian civilians' contributions to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Civilian-based resistance is integral to Ukraine's territorial defense efforts and has potential value in helping ensure victory by regaining territorial integrity and maintaining political sovereignty. The war in Ukraine also offers insight into potential trends in civilian actions in future wars.

Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine’s Civilian-Based Actions During the First Four Months of the War in 2022

Computers & Technology

Networking & Cloud Computing

Cooperation and Dependence in Belarus-Russia Relations

Massicot, Dara

Stalczynski, Mark

Shokh, Yuliya

Jukneviciute, Kotryna

Mahoney, Casey

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