<p>Reviews the Intelligence Community's analytic performance during the chaotic Vietnam era, with particular focus on the efforts of CIA analysts. Offers a candid view of the CIA's intelligence assessments concerning Vietnam during three episodes between 1962 & 1968 & the reactions of senior U.S. policymakers to those assessments. Shows that CIA analysts had a firm grasp of the situation in Vietnam & expressed doubts that heightened U.S. military pressure alone could win the war. Contrary to the opinions voiced by Robert McNamara & others, this volume illustrates the  expertise CIA officers brought to the Vietnam question. Photos.</p>

CIA & Vietnam Policymakers: Three Episodes 1962-1968 (History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence, )

Politics & Social Sciences

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

Politics & Government

Center for the Study of Intelligence

<p>This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. Richard Heur has selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. He then translates the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face.</p>

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Science & Math

Richards J. Heuer

Behavioral Sciences

US intelligence and the Polish crisis: 1980-1981

History

Maceachin, Douglas J.

Russia

GLOBAL TRENDS 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030, no country—whether the US, China, or any other large country—will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia's weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of "democratization" at the international and domestic level. In addition to individual empowerment and the diffusion of state power, we believe that two other megatrends will shape our world out to 2030: demographic patterns, especially rapid aging; and growing resource demands which, in the cases of food and water, might lead to scarcities. These trends, which are virtually certain, exist today, but during the next 15-20 years they will gain much greater momentum. Underpinning the megatrends are tectonic shifts - critical changes to key features of our global environment that will affect how the world "works" In depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of this report.

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Global Trends Reports)

Business & Money

Intelligence Council, National

International

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