Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.

Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change?

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.

Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

• Front Matter
• Executive Summary
• 1 Introduction to Abrupt Changes in the Earth's Climate
• 2 Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change
• 3 Processes that Cause Abrupt Climate Change
• 4 Global Warming as a Possible Trigger for Abrupt Climate Change
• 5 Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change
• 6 Findings and Recommendations
• References
• Appendix A Committee and Staff Biographies
• Appendix B Board Rosters
• Appendix C Workshop Agenda
• Appendix D Workshop Participants
• Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program
• Appendix F Impacts Workshop Participants
• Appendix G Acronym List
• Index
• Color Plates