Low-Altitude Wind Shear and Its Hazard to Aviation

Engineering & Transportation

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

National, Research Council

Committee on Low-Altitude Wind Shear and Its Hazard to Aviation

Transportation

National Academies Press

Ozone depletion in the stratosphere and increases in greenhouse gases in the troposphere are both subjects of growing concern--even alarm--among scientists, policymakers, and the public. At the same time, recent data show that these atmospheric developments are interconnected and in turn profoundly affect climatic conditions. This volume presents the most up-to-date data and theories available on ozone depletion, greenhouse gases, and climatic change. These questions and more are addressed: What is the current understanding of the processes that destroy ozone in the atmosphere? What role do greenhouse gases play in ozone depletion? Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>1 Introduction</li>
<li>2 Global Change and the Changing Atmosphere</li>
<li>3 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: Global Processes</li>
<li>4 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: Antartic Processes</li>
<li>5 The Role of Halocarbons in Stratospheric Ozone Depletion</li>
<li>6 Heterogeneous Chemical Processes in Ozone Depletion</li>
<li>7 Free Radicals in the Earth</li>
<li>8 Theoretical Projections of Stratospheric Change Due to Increasing . . .</li>
<li>9 Historical Trends in Atmospheric Methane Concentration and . . .</li>
<li>10 Global Temperature Trends</li>
<li>11 Use of Numerical Models to Project Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming . . .</li>
<li>Appendixes</li>
<li>Appendix A. Letter from the National Climate Program Office Requesting a Symposium</li>
<li>Appendix B. Symposium Agenda and Participants</li>
<li>Appendix C. Glossary</li>
</ul>

Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change

Crafts, Hobbies & Home

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

Committee on Global Change

Gardening & Landscape Design

This book presents working principles for assessing the relative importance of anthropogenic emission sources that contribute to haze in U.S. national parks and wilderness areas and discusses various alternative source control methods. Haze in the Grand Canyon evaluates and recommends strategies for improving critical scientific and technical gaps in the information and databases on haze. It examines such topics as methods for determining individual source contributions, regional and seasonal factors that affect haze, strategies for improving air quality models, the interactive role of photochemical exodants, and scientific and technological considerations in choosing emission control measures.

Haze in the Grand Canyon: An Evaluation of the Winter Haze Intensive Tracer Experiment

Science & Math

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

Committee on Haze in National Parks and Wilderness Areas

Earth Sciences

Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences. Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>Summary</li>
<li>Part I: 1 Introduction</li>
<li>2 Contributions of the Atmospheric Sciences to the National Well-Being</li>
<li>3 Scientific Imperatives and Recommendations for the Decades Ahead</li>
<li>4 Leadership and Management Challenges in the Decades Ahead</li>
<li>Part II: 1 Atmospheric Physics Research Entering the Twenty-First Century</li>
<li>2 Atmospheric Chemistry Research Entering the Twenty-First Century</li>
<li>3 Atmospheric Dynamics and Weather Forecasting Research Entering the Twenty-First Century</li>
<li>4 Upper Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space Research Entering the Twenty-First Century</li>
<li>5 Climate and Climate Change Research Entering the Twenty-First Century</li>
<li>References</li>
<li>Appendix A Acronyms and Abbreviations</li>
<li>Appendix B Listing of Reports by the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Since 1958</li>
<li>Index</li>
</ul>

The Atmospheric Sciences: Entering the Twenty-First Century

Astronomy & Space Science

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping ''greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: <ul>
<li>how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades,</li> <li>whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and</li> <li>whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature.</li> </ul>
This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements. Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>Executive Summary</li>
<li>Part I: Overview and Conclusions</li>
<li>1 Introduction</li>
<li>2 Background</li>
<li>3 Findings</li>
<li>4 Recommendations</li>
<li>Part II: Technical Background</li>
<li>5 Introduction</li>
<li>6 Surface Temperature Observations</li>
<li>7 MSU Observations</li>
<li>8 Radiosonde Observations</li>
<li>9 Trend Comparisons</li>
<li>References</li>
<li>Appendix A: Biographical Information on Panel Members</li>
<li>Appendix B: Acronyms and Abbreviations</li>
</ul>

Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

Climate Research Committee

Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity. Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>Executive Summary</li>
<li>Introduction</li>
<li>Climate and Infectious Diseases: The Past as Prologue</li>
<li>Linkages Between Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Diseases</li>
<li>Climate Influences on Specific Diseases</li>
<li>Analytical Approaches for Studying Climate/Disease Linkages</li>
<li>Temporal and Spatial Scaling: An Ecological Perspective</li>
<li>Towards the Development of Disease Early Warning Systems</li>
<li>Key Findings and Recommendations</li>
<li>Acronyms/Abbreviations</li>
<li>Glossary</li>
<li>References</li>
<li>Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members</li>
<li>Appendix B: Speakers/Presentations at the Committee eetings</li>
<li>Index</li>
</ul>

Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease

Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health

Biological Sciences

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future. Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>Executive Summary</li>
<li>1 Introduction to Abrupt Changes in the Earth's Climate</li>
<li>2 Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change</li>
<li>3 Processes that Cause Abrupt Climate Change</li>
<li>4 Global Warming as a Possible Trigger for Abrupt Climate Change</li>
<li>5 Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change</li>
<li>6 Findings and Recommendations</li>
<li>References</li>
<li>Appendix A Committee and Staff Biographies</li>
<li>Appendix B Board Rosters</li>
<li>Appendix C Workshop Agenda</li>
<li>Appendix D Workshop Participants</li>
<li>Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program</li>
<li>Appendix F Impacts Workshop Participants</li>
<li>Appendix G Acronym List</li>
<li>Index</li>
<li>Color Plates</li>
</ul>

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

Ocean Studies Board

Polar Research Board

Committee on Abrupt Climate Change

A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future describes the types of products that should be provided through a climate service; outlines the roles of the public, private, and academic sectors in a climate service; describe fundamental principles that should be followed in the provision of climate services; and describes potential audiences and providers of climate services.

A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future (Compass Series)

Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and prediction. The development of new technologies provides the motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar system and identifying the most promising approaches for the development of its eventual replacement. The charge to the committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the current weather radar system. The need, and schedule, for replacing the current system has not been established, but the committee used the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and research communities and identified potential system upgrades for providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost structures associated with any new weather radar system. The committee instead noted technologies that could provide improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations, the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could be as significant as the specific technologies adopted. Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with such procedural issues. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummary1. Role of Radar in the Weather and Climate Observing and Predicting System2. The Current System3. Advanced Radar Technologies - Capabilities and Opportunities4. Networks and Mobile Platforms5. Automated and Integrated Products6. Findings and Recommendations7. Concluding Remarks: Radar in a Time of TerrorismReferencesAppendix A: NEXRAD WSR-88D System CharacteristicsAppendix B: AcronymsAppendix C: Committee and Staff BiographiesColor Plates

Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD (Compass Series)

Committee on Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a toxic air pollutant produced largely from vehicle emissions. Breathing CO at high concentrations leads to reduced oxygen transport by hemoglobin, which has health effects that include impaired reaction timing, headaches, lightheadedness, nausea, vomiting, weakness, clouding of consciousness, coma, and, at high enough concentrations and long enough exposure, death. In recognition of those health effects, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as directed by the Clean Air Act, established the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for CO in 1971. Most areas that were previously designated as "nonattainment" areas have come into compliance with the NAAQS for CO, but some locations still have difficulty in attaining the CO standards. Those locations tend to have topographical or meteorological characteristics that exacerbate pollution. In view of the challenges posed for some areas to attain compliance with the NAAQS for CO, congress asked the National Research Council to investigate the problem of CO in areas with meteorological and topographical problems. This interim report deals specifically with Fairbanks, Alaska. Fairbanks was chosen as a case study because its meteorological and topographical characteristics make it susceptible to severe winter inversions that trap CO and other pollutants at ground level. Table of Contents <ul>
<li>Front Matter</li>
<li>Summary</li>
<li>1 Sources and Effects of Carbon Monoxide Emissions</li>
<li>2 Fairbanks Case Study</li>
<li>3 Implications of the Fairbanks Case Study</li>
<li>References</li>
<li>Glossary</li>
<li>Appendix: Biographical Information on the Committee on Carbon Monoxide Episodes in Meteorological and Topographical Problem Areas</li>
</ul>

The Ongoing Challenge of Managing Carbon Monoxide Pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska: Interim Report

Transportation Research Board

Committee on Carbon Monoxide Episodes in Meteorological and Topographical Problem Areas

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