The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future ones. Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes. The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.

The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

Business & Money

Vavreck, Lynn

Economics

Princeton University Press

The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future ones.
 Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes.
 The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.

The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

Sides, John

History

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest―and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election―with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written―and the only book of its kind.
In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election - Updated Edition

Americas

A gripping, in-depth account of the 2016 presidential election that explains Donald Trump’s historic victory
Donald Trump’s election victory stunned the world. How did he pull it off? Was it his appeal to alienated voters in the battleground states? Was it Hillary Clinton and the scandals associated with her long career in politics? Were key factors already in place before the nominees were even chosen? Identity Crisis provides a gripping account of the campaign that appeared to break all the political rules―but in fact didn’t.
Identity Crisis takes readers from the bruising primaries to an election night whose outcome defied the predictions of the pollsters and pundits. The book shows how fundamental characteristics of the nation and its politics―the state of the economy, the Obama presidency, and the demographics of the political parties―combined with the candidates’ personalities and rhetoric to produce one of the most unexpected presidencies in history. Early on, the fundamental characteristics predicted an extremely close election. And even though Trump’s many controversies helped Clinton maintain a comfortable lead for most of the campaign, the prediction of a close election became reality when Americans cast their votes.
Identity Crisis reveals how Trump’s victory was foreshadowed by changes in the Democratic and Republican coalitions that were driven by people’s racial and ethnic identities. The campaign then reinforced and exacerbated those cleavages as it focused on issues related to race, immigration, and religion. The result was an epic battle not just for the White House but about what America is and should be.

Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America

Tesler, Michael

A gripping in-depth look at the presidential election that stunned the world
Donald Trump’s election victory resulted in one of the most unexpected presidencies in history. Identity Crisis provides the definitive account of the campaign that seemed to break all the political rules―but in fact didn’t. Featuring a new afterword by the authors that discusses the 2018 midterms and today’s emerging political trends, this compelling book describes how Trump’s victory was foreshadowed by changes in the Democratic and Republican coalitions that were driven by people’s racial and ethnic identities, and how the Trump campaign exacerbated these divisions by hammering away on race, immigration, and religion. The result was an epic battle not just for the White House but about what America should be.

The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy

Review\n"I have found each one of [the authors' books] really detailed, data-rich lookbacks completely invaluable. . . . This one is really a model of how American politics is working right now at this point in our history."---Ezra Klein, New York Times\n"The timely advice and analysis will pique the interest of readers interested in politics and government and will be a strong title to offer prior to election season." ― Library Journal\nWhat an intensely divisive election portends for American politics\nThe year 2020 was a tumultuous time in American politics. It brought a global pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a razor-thin presidential election outcome. It culminated in an attack on the U.S. Capitol that attempted to deny Joe Biden’s victory. The Bitter End explores the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped this dramatic year and what these changes could mean for the future.\nJohn Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck demonstrate that Trump’s presidency intensified the partisan politics of the previous decades and the identity politics of the 2016 election. Presidential elections have become calcified, with less chance of big swings in either party’s favor. Republicans remained loyal to Trump and kept the election close, despite Trump’s many scandals, a recession, and the pandemic. But in a narrowly divided electorate even small changes can have big consequences. The pandemic was a case in point: when Trump pushed to reopen the country even as infections mounted, support for Biden increased. The authors explain that, paradoxically, even as Biden’s win came at a time of heightened party loyalty, there remained room for shifts that shaped the election’s outcome. Ultimately, the events of 2020 showed that instead of the country coming together to face national challenges―the pandemic, George Floyd’s murder, and the Capitol riot―these challenges only reinforced divisions.\nExpertly chronicling the tensions of an election that came to an explosive finish, The Bitter End presents a detailed account of a year of crises and the dangerous direction in which the country is headed.

Politics & Social Sciences

Tausanovitch, Chris

Politics & Government

What an intensely divisive election portends for American politics The year 2020 was a tumultuous time in American politics. It brought a global pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a razor-thin presidential election outcome. It culminated in an attack on the U.S. Capitol that attempted to deny Joe Biden's victory. The Bitter End explores the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped this dramatic year and what these changes could mean for the future. John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck demonstrate that Trump's presidency intensified the partisan politics of the previous decades and the identity politics of the 2016 election. Presidential elections have become calcified, with less chance of big swings in either party's favor. Republicans remained loyal to Trump and kept the election close, despite Trump's many scandals, a recession, and the pandemic. But in a narrowly divided electorate even small changes can have big consequences. The pandemic was a case in point: when Trump pushed to reopen the country even as infections mounted, support for Biden increased. The authors explain that, paradoxically, even as Biden's win came at a time of heightened party loyalty, there remained room for shifts that shaped the election's outcome. Ultimately, the events of 2020 showed that instead of the country coming together to face national challenges--the pandemic, George Floyd's murder, and the Capitol riot--these challenges only reinforced divisions. Expertly chronicling the tensions of an election that came to an explosive finish, The Bitter End presents a detailed account of a year of crises and the dangerous direction in which the country is headed.

The Logic of American Politics

Why does the American political system work the way it does?\nFind the answers in The Logic of American Politics. This bestselling text arms you with a "toolkit" of institutional design concepts―command, veto, agenda control, voting rules, and delegation―to help you comprehend how the American political system was designed and why it works the way it does. The authors build your critical thinking through a simple yet powerful idea: politics is about solving collective action problems. This thoroughly updated Tenth Edition considers the most recent events and data, including rising political polarization, the country’s reaction to changing demographics, and Americans’ growing emotional involvement in politics. With a fresh analysis of the 2020 election results, this bestseller provides you with the tools you need to make sense of the government they have.\nAlso available as a digital option (courseware). Learn more about The Logic of American Politics - Vantage Digital Option, Tenth Edition [ISBN: 978-1-0718-2141-1]

Kousser, Thad

Kernell, Samuel H.

Jacobson, Gary C.

Johnson, Timothy R.

CQ Press

Why does the American political system work the way it does?Find the answers in The Logic of American Politics. This bestselling text arms you with a "toolkit" of institutional design concepts--command, veto, agenda control, voting rules, and delegation--to help you comprehend how the American political system was designed and why it works the way it does. The authors build your critical thinking through a simple yet powerful idea: politics is about solving collective action problems. This thoroughly updated Tenth Editionconsiders the most recent events and data, including rising political polarization, the country's reaction to changing demographics, and Americans' growing emotional involvement in politics. With a fresh analysis of the 2020 election results, this bestseller provides you with the tools you need to make sense of the government they have.Also available as a digital option (courseware). Learn more about The Logic of American Politics - Vantage Digital Option, Tenth Edition[ISBN: 978-1-0718-2141-1]

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Vavreck, Lynn. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

Books by Vavreck, Lynn

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Vavreck, Lynn. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election - Updated Edition

Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America

Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America

The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy

The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy

The Logic of American Politics

The Logic of American Politics