Without a Map: Political Tactics and Economic Reform in Russia

Recent commentators on Russia's economic reforms have almost uniformly declared them a disappointing and avoidable -- failure. In this book, two American scholars take a new and more balanced look at the country's attempts to build capitalism on the ruins of Soviet central planning. They show how and why the Russian reforms achieved remarkable breakthroughs in some areas but came undone in others. Unlike Eastern European countries such as Poland or the Czech Republic, to which it is often compared, Russia is a federal, ethnically diverse, industrial giant with an economy heavily oriented toward raw materials extraction. The political obstacles it faced in designing reforms were incomparably greater.Shleifer and Treisman tell how Russia's leaders, navigating in uncharted economic terrain, managed to find a path around some of these obstacles. In successful episodes, central reformers devised a strategy to win over some key opponents, while dividing and marginalizing others. Such political tactics made possible the rapid privatization of 14,000 state enterprises in 1992-1994 and the defeat of inflation in 1995. But failure to outmaneuver the new oligarchs and regional governors after 1996 undermined reformers' attempts to collect taxes and clean up the bureaucracy that has stifled business growth.Renewing a strain of analysis that runs from Machiavelli to Hirschman, the authors reach conclusions about political strategies that have important implications for other reformers. They draw on their extensive knowledge of the country and recent experience as advisors to Russian policymakers. Written in an accessible style, the book should appeal to economists, political scientists, policymakers, businesspeople, and all those interested in Russian politics or economics.

Business & Money

Treisman, Daniel

Shleifer, Andrei

Economics

Mit Pr

A balanced look at Russia's attempts to build capitalism on the ruins of Soviet central planning.
Recent commentators on Russia's economic reforms have almost uniformly declared them a disappointing and avoidable―failure. In this book, two American scholars take a new and more balanced look at the country's attempts to build capitalism on the ruins of Soviet central planning. They show how and why the Russian reforms achieved remarkable breakthroughs in some areas but came undone in others. Unlike Eastern European countries such as Poland or the Czech Republic, to which it is often compared, Russia is a federal, ethnically diverse, industrial giant with an economy heavily oriented toward raw materials extraction. The political obstacles it faced in designing reforms were incomparably greater. Shleifer and Treisman tell how Russia's leaders, navigating in uncharted economic terrain, managed to find a path around some of these obstacles. In successful episodes, central reformers devised a strategy to win over some key opponents, while dividing and marginalizing others. Such political tactics made possible the rapid privatization of 14,000 state enterprises in 1992-1994 and the defeat of inflation in 1995. But failure to outmaneuver the new oligarchs and regional governors after 1996 undermined reformers' attempts to collect taxes and clean up the bureaucracy that has stifled business growth.Renewing a strain of analysis that runs from Machiavelli to Hirschman, the authors reach conclusions about political strategies that have important implications for other reformers. They draw on their extensive knowledge of the country and recent experience as advisors to Russian policymakers. Written in an accessible style, the book should appeal to economists, political scientists, policymakers, businesspeople, and all those interested in Russian politics or economics.

Shleifer, Professor of Economics Andrei

MIT Press]

The Architecture of Government: Rethinking Political Decentralization (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)

Since the days of Montesquieu and Jefferson, political decentralization has been seen as a force for better government and economic performance. It is thought to bring government 'closer to the people', nurture civic virtue, protect liberty, exploit local information, stimulate policy innovation, and alleviate ethnic tensions. Inspired by such arguments, and generously funded by the major development agencies, countries across the globe have been racing to devolve power to local governments. This book re-examines the arguments that underlie the modern faith in decentralization. Using logical analysis and formal modeling, and appealing to numerous examples, it shows that most are based on vague intuitions or partial views that do not withstand scrutiny. A review of empirical studies of decentralization finds these as inconclusive and mutually contradictory as the theories they set out to test.

Cambridge University Press

Review\n"A New Yorker Best Book of the Year"\n"A fascinating new book." ― The Economist\n"[A] well-researched and entertaining book."---Tony Barber, Financial Times\n"Entertaining and disquieting."---Gideon Rachman, Financial Times\n"With meaty graphs and well-organized evidence . . . Guriev and Treisman advance subtler arguments, as they show that authoritarian rulers can come to power by democratic means and stay there."---Adam Gopnik, New Yorker\n"If we failed to end tyrants, we played our part in helping to mould them. As Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman observe in their intelligent, important book Spin Dictators, throughout this time something far more interesting and dangerous was happening. The most sophisticated dictators were reforming themselves, and the lesson they internalised was not the need to be democratic – that, after all, went against who they were – but the need to look democratic."---David Patrikarakos, Spectator\n"As Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman persuasively argue in Spin Dictators, their absorbing, meticulous study of the evolution of authoritarianism in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, craft and deception have in recent decades supplanted fear and terror as the defining characteristics of today’s autocratic rulers. . . . In diagnosing a critical problem and proposing a prophylactic, Guriev and Treisman have performed a great service to the field of geopolitics."---Michael M. Rosen, Washington Examiner\n"Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman have written the most astute account of the system that has risen to challenge liberal democracy in the 21st century. Their book, Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century, describes the methods which have made it possible for Putin, Viktor Orban, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and others to rule over societies that in most cases had developed reasonably well functioning democracies. Other scholars and journalists have written about the tactics used by 21st century autocrats to secure control over the institutions of a free society. But Guriev and Treisman have assembled the most thorough analysis of the building blocks of contemporary dictatorships."---Arch Puddington, American Purpose\n"A deeply researched tour d’horizon of the evolving dark arts of authoritarian politics."---G. John Ikenberry, Foreign Affairs\n"The authors carefully document dozens of strategies used by authoritarian regimes around the world to successfully pass themselves off as populist supporters of democracy when the actual goal is tyranny and absolute power. As depressing as this scenario may be, the authors do politically concerned readers an immense favor, enabling us to recognize these tactics and, with that knowledge, ultimately oppose this new breed of dictator." ― Booklist\n"Thoroughly enjoyable and enlightening."---Joshua Huminski, Diplomatic Courier\nHow a new breed of dictators holds power by manipulating information and faking democracy\nHitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond.\nSpin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all whi

Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century

Politics & Social Sciences

Guriev, Sergei

Social Sciences

Princeton University Press

How a new breed of dictators holds power by manipulating information and faking democracy\nHitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond.\nSpin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today’s authoritarians are spin dictators―and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad, as well as from masters of high-tech repression like Xi Jinping.\nOffering incisive portraits of today’s authoritarian leaders, Spin Dictators explains some of the great political puzzles of our time―from how dictators can survive in an age of growing modernity to the disturbing convergence and mutual sympathy between dictators and populists like Donald Trump.

'Not only are Russia's regions economically diverse, but the policies that regional governments have adopted to deal with the strains of economic transition also vary widely. Some regions have generally embraced market reforms, while others have sought to preserve enclaves of socialism, with price restrictions, large subsidies, and barriers to trade.'Reforms of Russia's budgetary system at the subnational level are vital to preserve macroeconomic stability, improve the efficiency and accountability of government, and enhance incentives for local and regional governments to vigorously support economic growth. Previous analytical and reform efforts have focused on possible changes at the federal level and in the system of center-region relations. An opportunity now exists to make progress by providing reform advice and conditional aid to policymakers at the regional and subregional level. This report focuses on opportunities for reform at the subnational level. It reviews recent trends in fiscal adjustment, budgeting, and government debt at the regional and local levels in Russia. It analyzes major problems and suggests a number of measures and performance indicators that could form part of a reform strategy initiated by the Government of Russia.

Subnational Budgeting in Russia: Preempting a Potential Crisis (World Bank Technical Paper)

Titov, Stepan

Freinkman, Lev M.

World Bank

Crisis in Ukraine sets the intellectual stage for understanding the turmoil in eastern Europe, what is really at stake, and what will come next. The arguments presented span the ideological spectrum, and the authors include a range of leading experts from several disciplines and countries, including Yuliya Tymoshenko, Alexander Motyl, Orlando Figes, Kathryn Stoner, Daniel Treisman, Brian Taylor, Kathleen McNamara, and more. Released as policymakers in Washington and other capitals debate how to handle Ukraine, this book contains everything needed for readers to develop informed opinions of their own.

Crisis in Ukraine (FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANTHOLOGY SERIES)

FIGES, Orlando

Rose, Gideon

Krastev, Ivan

Karatnycky, Adrian

Motyl, Alexander J.

Tymoshenko, Yuliya

Chapman, Annabelle

Darden, Keith

Stoner, Kathryn

Politics & Government

Council on Foreign Relations

Russia has long been a source of puzzlement— and sometimes alarm—for Western observers. Since shaking off communism two decades ago, the country has seemed wobbly at best, thoroughly corrupt and threatening at worst. But in recent years, as noted scholar Daniel Treisman shows in this compelling account, Russia has re-emerged as a pivotal nation in world affairs. In The Return, Treisman cuts through the myths and misinformation, as well as ongoing academic and journalistic debates, to present a portrait of a strong and independent country that is returning to the international community on its own terms. Drawing on two decades of research, interviews, and insider observation, The Return provides the first comprehensive history of post-communist Russia. From Gorbachev to Yeltsin, Putin, and Medvedev, it traces the twists and turns of the country’s evolution, uncovering the causes behind Russia’s plunge into depression in the 1990s and resurgence since 2000. Rather than a nation frozen in ancient authoritarian traditions, as Russia is often portrayed, Treisman shows a society modernizing rapidly, with a government that, although less than democratic, is sensitive to public opinion but which has been repeatedly buffeted by economic forces—the collapse of Soviet planning, the gyrations of oil prices—that have alternately boosted and drained the leaders’ popularity. Knocked off balance once again by the global financial crisis, the Kremlin’s current bosses must now struggle to reignite the growth on which the stability of their regime depends. As Russia grapples with its economic difficulties, the West will have to come to terms with the new Russia. With its UN Security Council veto, thousands of atomic warheads, continental dimensions, and vast mineral resources, Moscow sits at the epicenter of the toughest challenges the world will confront in the next generation—from Islamic terrorism and nuclear proliferation to energy security and global warming. To enlist Russia’s cooperation in solving the problems of the twenty-first century, Western leaders will need to look beyond common misconceptions to see the country as it is rather than as it has often been imagined or depicted. Based on extensive research by an expert with intimate knowledge of the country, the book provides insight into the prospects for democracy in Russia, the challenges and opportunities of doing business there, the wars in Chechnya, and the motives behind Moscow’s foreign policy. The Return is the ultimate accounting of what Russia is today, how it got there, and where it’s going.

The Return: Russia's Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev

History

Russia

Free Press

In this critically acclaimed book, now available in paperback, noted scholar Daniel Treisman offers a refreshing and exhaustively reported look at the political, economic, and cultural changes in Russia, with an in-depth examination of the modern state and its role in global affairs. Almost twenty-five years after Mikhail Gorbachev began radically reshaping his country, Russia has changed beyond recognition. In his third book on this subject, Professor Daniel Treisman takes stock of the country that has emerged from the debris of Soviet communism and addresses the questions that preoccupy scholars of its history and politics: Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Could its collapse have been avoided? Did Yeltsin destroy too much or too little of the Soviet political order? What explains Putin’s unprecedented popularity with the Russian public? Based on two decades of research and his own experiences in the country, Treisman cuts through the scholarly and journalistic debates to provide a portrait of a country returning to the international community on its own terms. At a time when global politics are more important than ever, The Return illuminates the inner workings of a country that has increasingly come to influence, and which will continue to shape, American foreign policy and world events.

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