Causal Models: How People Think About the World and Its Alternatives

Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. In cognitive terms, how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: Thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. The book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation.

Causal Models: How People Think about the World and Its Alternatives

Health, Fitness & Dieting

Sloman, Steven

Psychology & Counseling

Oxford University Press

Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. In cognitive terms, how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: Thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. The book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation. "Sloman has written an accessible, popular-level book that will serve as a useful general introduction to the tricky and complex issues involved in understanding causality and its role in cognitive processing. For people who are unfamiliar with the issues and the research involved, this is a good starting point, although parts may require thoughtful rereadings. For people who are generally familiar with the issues but not the recent research or theoretical conceptions (e.g. , the use of counterfactuals), this book can serve as a useful guide to update one's knowledge. People who are actively working in this area will probably find this book a quick and enjoyable read."--Michael Palij, PsycCRITIQUES "The field of Bayesian causal models is becoming increasingly important for theory building in cognitive science. This book provides a lively and lucid introduction to the core concepts, and weaves them together with the latest research on causality and related topics from the cognitive sciences. Elegant and entertaining."--Nick Chater, Director of the Institute for Applied Cognitive Science and Professor of Psychology, University of Warwick "The scientific analysis of causal systems has become much more sophisticated with recent developments in computer science, statistics, and philosophy during the past decade. For the first time, we have available a comprehensive formal language in which to represent complex causal systems and which can be used to define normative solutions to causal inference and judgment problems. Steven Sloman's book makes these important developments easily accessible to the reader, as well as presenting many of his own exciting applications of these new ideas in behavioral studies of learning and judging causal relationships. This well-written book is full of profound insights and fascinating results. Anyone who wants to know what's going on at the cutting edge of cognitive science should read it." --Reid Hastie, Professor of Behavioral Science, University of Chicago "In the last 15 years, there has been a quiet revolution in how we model, understand, and learn about the causal structure of the world. Having started in philosophy and computer science, but now vital in psychology and statistics, the causal revolution has been slowed by the conspicuous absence of a truly readable book-length introduction. Fortunately, Steve Sloman has now written one. In a book that includes all the key ideas behind causal modeling but none of the tedious technical details, hundreds of worked examples ranging from marketing to arithmetic, and dozens of applications ranging from how we categorize the world to how we might be evolved to learn about its causal structure, Sloman has made a difficult subject exciting and simple." --Richard Scheines, Professor of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University "Steven Sloman's Causal Models is the first broadly accessible book to survey an important and growing field of cognitive research: how people understand the causal structure of their world, and the role of causal understanding in all aspects of thinking, perceiving, and acting. No difficult technical concepts are assumed. Important unifying themes are explained clearly and illustrated with numerous examples. It will provide an excellent entry into this field for students, researchers, or interested general readers." --Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Paul E. Newton Career Development Professor, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

A timely and important perspective on how people frame decisions and how relying on sacred values unwittingly leads to social polarization. When you are faced with a decision, do you consider the best outcome, or do you consider your deepest values about which actions are appropriate? The Cost of Conviction contrasts these two primary strategies for making decisions: consequentialism or prioritizing one's sacred values. Steven Sloman argues that, while both modes of decision making are necessary tools for a good decision maker, people err by deploying sacred values more often than they should, especially when it comes to sociopolitical issues. As a result, we oversimplify, grow disgusted and angry, and act in ways that contribute to social polarization. In this book, Sloman provides a new understanding of today's societal ills and grounds that understanding in science. Drawing on historical and current examples of the two decision-making strategies in action, the author provides a thorough overview of the psychology of decision making, including work on judgment, conscious and unconscious decision-making processes, the roles of emotion, and even an analysis of habit and addiction. With its unique emphasis on sacred values, The Cost of Conviction is an eye-opening must-read for all decision makers, especially those who wish to understand judgment, social decision making, and leadership.

The Cost of Conviction: How Our Deepest Values Lead Us Astray

Self-Help

Personal Transformation

The MIT Press

“The Knowledge Illusion is filled with insights on how we should deal with our individual ignorance and collective wisdom.” —Steven Pinker We all think we know more than we actually do. Humans have built hugely complex societies and technologies, but most of us don’t even know how a pen or a toilet works. How have we achieved so much despite understanding so little? Cognitive scientists Steven Sloman and Philip Fernbach argue that we survive and thrive despite our mental shortcomings because we live in a rich community of knowledge. The key to our intelligence lies in the people and things around us. We’re constantly drawing on information and expertise stored outside our heads: in our bodies, our environment, our possessions, and the community with which we interact—and usually we don’t even realize we’re doing it. The human mind is both brilliant and pathetic. We have mastered fire, created democratic institutions, stood on the moon, and sequenced our genome. And yet each of us is error prone, sometimes irrational, and often ignorant. The fundamentally communal nature of intelligence and knowledge explains why we often assume we know more than we really do, why political opinions and false beliefs are so hard to change, and why individual-oriented approaches to education and management frequently fail. But our collaborative minds also enable us to do amazing things. The Knowledge Illusion contends that true genius can be found in the ways we create intelligence using the community around us.

The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone

Business & Money

Fernbach, Philip

Management & Leadership

Riverhead Books

Penguin Publishing Group

Human reasoning is remarkably shallow - in fact, our thinking and justifications just scratch the surface of the true complexity of the issues we deal with. The ability to think may still be the greatest wonder in the world (and beyond), but the way that individuals think is less than ideal. In The Knowledge Illusion, Sloman and Fernbach show that our intelligence resides not in individual brains but in the collective mind. To function, individuals rely not only on knowledge that is stored within our skulls but also on knowledge stored elsewhere, be it in our bodies, in the environment or especially in other people. Put together, human thought is incredibly impressive, but at its deepest level it never belongs to any individual alone. 
And yet the mind supports the most sublime, incredible phenomenon of all: consciousness. How can any of this be possible with a mind that is so imperfect? This is one of the key challenges confronted in this book. The Knowledge Illusion ties together established scientific facts whilst also considering what the mind is for. Understanding why the mind is as it is, and what it is for, will show why we need to consider it as extending beyond our skulls; why we should think about 'the mind' as far more than an extension of the brain but as an emergence from multiple brains interacting. Simply put, individuals know relatively little, but the human hive that emerges when people work together knows a lot.

The Knowledge Illusion: The myth of individual thought and the power of collective wisdom

Macmillan

Pan Books

Wir denken, also bin ich: Über Wissen und Wissensillusionen

Beltz GmbH, Julius

L'illusione della conoscenza. Perché non pensiamo mai da soli

Scienza E Idee

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