This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. Richard Heur has selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. He then translates the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

History

Richards J. Heuer Jr.

Military

United States Govt Printing Office

From the Author\nIn the early 1970s, CIA formed a methodology office to examine quantitative methods that had been developed in the 1960s during what was called the behavioral revolution in academic political science, and to test how these methods could be applied in intelligence analysis. The creation of this office was ordered by CIA Director William Colby in response to criticism by prominent academics that the agency's analytic methods were way out of date.\nI chaired a panel that presented examples of this office's work at the 1977 meeting of the International Studies Association. This book publishes those panel presentations. My opening chapter summarizes our experience and some of the lessons learned. It describes how CIA's political research objectives condition its methodological procedures and what kinds of methods and techniques are particularly well suited to the CIA's needs. It became apparent that social scientists commonly define policy-relevant research far more broadly than the foreign policy community does, and that there were not a great many relevant methods and proven models ready-made for our use.\nThis chapter discusses fundamental differences in perspective between the intelligence analyst and the academic researcher. For example, the academic researcher is relatively free to define a problem in his or her own terms, while our research problems are generally defined by the requirements of U.S. foreign policy. The academic researcher chooses a topic for which data are available, whereas it is often new problems (or old problems defined in new ways) for which the policymaker requires intelligence analysis. Quantitatively oriented scholars can easily limit their work to those variables that can be operationalized, but the government analyst seldom enjoys that luxury. Government analysts are far more concerned with matters of presentation. They are writing for an audience that, by and large, does not understand the procedures or tolerate the jargon of social science methodology, and they must keep their presentation brief if they want it read by persons in authority.\nThe discussion of these differences is as relevant today as it was 32 years ago. A copy of this initial chapter is available from the author.

Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience

Politics & Social Sciences

Politics & Government

Westview Press

Literature & Fiction

Dramas & Plays

Pherson Associates, LLC

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins. THE TECHNIQUES Getting Started Checklist Customer Checklist Issue Redefinition Chronologies and Timelines Sorting Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing Matrices Network Analysis Mind Maps and Concept Maps Process Maps and Gantt Charts Structured Brainstorming Virtual Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Starbursting Cross-Impact Matrix Morphological Analysis Quadrant Crunching Basic Scenario Analysis Alternative Futures Analysis Multiple Scenario Generation Indicators Indicators Validator Simple Hypothesis Multiple Hypotheses Generator Quadrant Hypothesis Generation Diagnostic Reasoning Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Argument Mapping Deception Detection Key Assumptions Check Structured Analogies Role Playing Red Hat Analysis Outside-In Thinking Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model Prediction Markets Premortem Analysis Structured Self-Critique What If? Analysis High Impact/Low Probability Analysis Devil’s Advocacy Red Team Analysis Delphi Method Adversarial Collaboration Structured Debate Complexity Manager Decision Matrix Force Field Analysis Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes SWOT Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Business & Money

Randolph H. Pherson

Economics

CQ Press

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