The War Ledger provides fresh, sophisticated answers to fundamental questions about major modern wars: Why do major wars begin? What accounts for victory or defeat in war? How do victory and defeat influence the recovery of the combatants? Are the rules governing conflict behavior between nations the same since the advent of the nuclear era? The authors find such well-known theories as the balance of power and collective security systems inadequate to explain how conflict erupts in the international system. Their rigorous empirical analysis proves that the power-transition theory, hinging on economic, social, and political growth, is more accurate; it is the differential rate of growth of the two most powerful nations in the systemâ€”the dominant nation and the challengerâ€”that destabilizes all members and precipitates world wars. Predictions of who will win or lose a war, the authors find, depend not only on the power potential of a nation but on the capability of its political systems to mobilize its resourcesâ€”the "political capacity indicator." After examining the aftermath of major conflicts, the authors identify national growth as the determining factor in a nation's recovery. With victory, national capabilities may increase or decrease; with defeat, losses can be enormous. Unexpectedly, however, in less than two decades, losers make up for their losses and all combatants find themselves where they would have been had no war occurred. Finally, the authors address the question of nuclear arsenals. They find that these arsenals do not make the difference that is usually assumed. Nuclear weapons have not changed the structure of power on which international politics rests. Nor does the behavior of participants in nuclear confrontation meet the expectations set out in deterrence theory.

The War Ledger

Engineering & Transportation

Kugler, Jacek

Organski, A. F. K.

Engineering

University of Chicago Press

It has long been suspected that birth rates and death rates are tied in some way to political change, but until now reliable evidence of such a relationship has eluded researchers. After their own extensive research, the authors of Births, Deaths, and Taxes present the first empirical evidence indicating that state growth and the centralization of political power have a direct effect on a country's mortality and fertility rates: as the capacity of government grows, a nation's vital rates will decline. Because mortality rates decline first, state growth in recent decades precipitated a population explosion. Continued state growth, along with social and economic development, is now causing a drop in fertility as well. To establish this relationship between political development and vital rates, the authors constructed an innovative index to measure political development and capacity. They argue that the growth of government power can be reasonably and accurately gauged by measuring increases in taxation.

Births, Deaths, and Taxes: The Demographic and Political Transitions

Politics & Social Sciences

Social Sciences

Univ of Chicago Pr

The 36 Billion Dollar Bargain: Strategy and Politics in U.S. Assistance to Israel

Politics & Government

Columbia Univ. Pr.

Format Paperback Subject Political Science International Relations Publisher New York Columbia University Press c1990

The $36 Billion Bargain: U.S. Aid to Israel and American Public Opinion (Strategy and Politics in Us Assistance to Israel)

Business & Money

Economics

Columbia University Press

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