Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures: Using Scenarios to Manage American Strategy

Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

Engineering & Transportation

Oppenheimer, Michael F.

Engineering

Oxford University Press

Nontariff Barriers: The Effects on Corporate Strategy in High-Technology Sectors

This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. The study documents a pronounced dichotomy between strategies of small and large companies that, to a significant extent, reflects the gap in the resources, bargaining power, and familiarity with foreign markets of these two groups. Conclusions concerning the efficacy of corporate strategies adopted are supported by an analysis of over 20 case studies. These strategies range from licensing agreements with local firms to use of a trading company or local distributor, formation of a joint venture with a local firm, and establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary in the foreign market.

Business & Money

Economics

Routledge

Technology Trade With The Middle East

Graham, Norman A.

Emery, James J.

Reference

Two leading experts propose a detailed plan of action showing how government, industry, and private citizens can work together to ward off environmental disaster.

Dead Heat

History

World

Basic Books

Technology Trade With The Middle East (WESTVIEW SPECIAL STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS)

Westview Press

Book by Cohen, Robert B., Ferguson, Richard, Oppenheimer, Micheal

Nontariff Barriers To High-technology Trade (WESTVIEW SPECIAL STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS)

Cohen, Robert B.

Ferguson, Richard W

Nontariff Barriers: The Effects On Corporate Strategy In High-technology Sectors (WESTVIEW SPECIAL STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS)

Tuths, Donna M.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank: Policy Dilemmas and Choices

Kauffman, Richard L

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Books by Oppenheimer, Michael F.