An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty.
This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. 
The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. 
New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition (Mit Press)

Business & Money

Myerson, Roger B.

Zambrano, Eduardo

Economics

The MIT Press

This book is an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. Throughout this book, author Roger Myerson focuses on showing students how to use probability in complex realistic situations. All the analytical work in this book is done in Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, students will also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills. However, the main goals of the book are to make the practical power of probability analysis accessible to students and to demonstrate how to apply these concepts in the real world.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions (with CD-ROM) (Duxbury Applied)

Cengage Learning'

Text-Specific CD-ROM for Myerson's Probability Models for Economic Decisions

Science & Math

Mathematics

Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information. 
 Game Theory will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.

Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict

Harvard University Press

Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.
Game Theory will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.

Force and Restraint in Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist's Perspective

History

Military

BiblioGov

This monograph is a short nontechnical introduction to the use of game theory in the study of international relations. The focus is on the problem of deterrence against potential adversaries and aggressors. The author, Professor Roger Myerson, uses game models to provide a simple context where we can see more clearly the essential logic of strategic deterrence. We should look to such theoretical analysis for basic insights that may have practical importance in policymaking. The main conclusion is that a great power's use of its military forces may be rendered ineffective or even counterproductive when there are no clear internationally recognizable limits on this use of force. Professor Myerson derives this conclusion from the basic observation that our ability to influence potential rivals depends on a balanced mix of threats and promises.

Force And Restraint In Strategic Deterrence: A Game-theorist’s Perspective

Education & Teaching

Institute, Strategic Studies

Schools & Teaching

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Books by Myerson, Roger B.