A Rand study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power

History

Libicki, Martin C.

Morgan, Forrest E.

Hagen, Jeff

DeLuca, Paul

Heginbotham, Eric

Nixon, Michael

Heim, Jacob L.

Li, Sheng

Engstrom, Jeffrey

Shlapak, David A.

Frelinger, David R.

Laird, Burgess

Brady, Kyle

Morris, Lyle J.

Asia

RAND Corporation

This report is the last of a six-volume series in which RAND explores the elements of a national strategy for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. It analyzes U.S. strengths and weaknesses, and suggests adaptations for this new era of turbulence and uncertainty. The report offers three alternative strategic concepts and evaluates their underlying assumptions, costs, risks, and constraints.

Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity (Strategic Rethink)

Business & Money

Solomon, Richard H.

Shatz, Howard J.

Camm, Frank

Lempert, Robert J.

Chandra, Anita

Knopman, Debra

Hoehn, Andrew R.

Efron, Sonni

Yost, Casimir

Economics

What happens to deterrence and escalation when decisions can be made at machine speeds and when states can put fewer human lives at risk? What are potential areas for miscalculation and unintended consequences, and unwanted escalation in particular? This exploratory report provides an initial examination of how artificial intelligence and autonomous systems could affect deterrence and escalation in conventional crises and conflicts.

Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines

Computers & Technology

Frank, Aaron

Steeb, Randall

Osoba, Osonde A.

Button, Robert W.

Joon Bae, Sebastian

Wong, Yuna Huh

Yurchak, John M.

Harris, Benjamin N.

Computer Science

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