For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

Computers & Technology

Kucharski, Adam

Computer Science

Basic Books

An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what's true, and what to do when we can't&nbsp; How do we establish what we believe? And how can we be certain that what we believe is true? And how do we convince other people that it is true? For thousands of years, from the ancient Greeks to the Arabic golden age to the modern world, science has used different methods--logical, empirical, intuitive, and more--to separate fact from fiction. But it all had the same goal: find perfect evidence and be rewarded with universal truth.&nbsp; &nbsp; As mathematician Adam Kucharski shows, however, there is far more to proof than axioms, theories, and laws: when demonstrating that a new medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether you trust a self-driving car, the weighing up of evidence is far from simple. To discover proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases and embrace uncertainty--and never more so than when existing methods fail. &nbsp; &nbsp; Spanning mathematics, science, politics, philosophy, and economics, this book offers the ultimate exploration of how we can find our way to proof--and, just as importantly, of how to go forward when supposed facts falter. &nbsp;

Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty

Politics & Social Sciences

Philosophy

<div> <div>One of the Best Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;Financial Times One of the "Most 2020 Books of 2020" --&nbsp;Washington Post One of the Best Science Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;The Times&nbsp;of London One of the Best Science Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;The Guardian &nbsp; <div>From ideas and infections to financial crises and fake news, an "utterly timely" look at why the science of outbreaks is the science of modern life These days, whenever anything spreads, whether it's a YouTube fad or a political rumor, we say it went viral. But how does virality actually work? In The Rules of Contagion, epidemiologist Adam Kucharski explores topics including gun violence, online manipulation, and, of course, outbreaks of disease to show how much we get wrong about contagion, and how astonishing the real science is.</div> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Why did the president retweet a Mussolini quote as his own? Why do financial bubbles take off so quickly? Why are disinformation campaigns so effective? And what makes the emergence of new illnesses -- such as MERS, SARS, or the coronavirus disease COVID-19 -- so challenging? By uncovering the crucial factors driving outbreaks, we can see how things really spread -- and what we can do about it.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Whether you are an author seeking an audience, a defender of truth, or simply someone interested in human social behavior, The Rules of Contagion is an essential guide to modern life.</div> </div>

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread--And Why They Stop

Business & Money

Management & Leadership

One of the Best Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;Financial Times One of the "Most 2020 Books of 2020" --&nbsp;Washington Post One of the Best Science Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;The Times&nbsp;of London One of the Best Science Books of 2020&nbsp;--&nbsp;The Guardian From fake news to COVID-19, a "smart and engaging" (New York Times)&nbsp;look at why the science of outbreaks is the science of modern&nbsp;life It's undeniable that we live in a world shaped by outbreaks.&nbsp;Whether it's pandemic disease, misinformation, or violence, grasping why exactly some things spread is essential for understanding the world around us.&nbsp;In&nbsp;The&nbsp;Rules of Contagion, Adam Kucharski uncovers the crucial factors driving outbreaks, exploring what it&nbsp;actually means&nbsp;for something to "go viral."&nbsp;He&nbsp;offers compelling insights into human behavior,&nbsp;ultimately&nbsp;showing&nbsp;us how we can all get better at predicting&nbsp;outbreaks--and&nbsp;how they can be stopped. Revised&nbsp;in&nbsp;light of&nbsp;the COVID-19 pandemic, this is a comprehensive and essential guide to our times.&nbsp;

Rules of Contagion

"An elegant and amusing account.... Anyone planning to enter a casino or place an online bet would be advised to keep this book handy." --Wall Street Journal For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

Perfect Bet

Bringing together ideas from mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, The Perfect Bet traces the origins of successful betting methods. From the simple to the intricate, and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision-making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds, and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the U. S. nuclear program to predict sports results. Kucharski reveals why winning at chess depends on luck-but victory in checkers does not-and why poker is one of the ultimate challenges for artificial intelligence. He also explores the difficulties of mimicking human behavior, and explains what caused one hedge fund's rogue algorithm to lose them $400,000 per second in the summer of 2012.

HighBridge Company

[An] enjoyable... paean to human ingenuity, and a Robin Hood tale of wealth redistribution. (Daily Telegraph) This book is full of magic. It's brimming with clever people and clever ideas... The links between betting and science run deep and wide, allowing Kucharski to cover some thrilling intellectual territory. (New Scientist) Terrific: beautifully written, solidly researched and full of surprises (New York Times Numberplay blog) Elegant and amusing ... anyone planning to enter a casino or place an online bet would be advised to keep this book handy (Wall Street Journal) Great stories of how smart people have used maths, statistics and science to try and beat the odds - legally'. (David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge) A wild ride through the history, psychology, mathematics, and technology of gaming - a remarkable look behind the curtain of what most people think is intuitive, but isn't (Paul Offit, author of Bad Faith) With an entertaining writing style, Adam Kucharski guides us through the history and state of the art of The Perfect Bet showing us how mathematics and computers are used to come up with optimal ways to gamble, play games, bluff, and invest our money. Extremely well-written and carefully researched. I highly recommend it. (Arthur Benjamin, author of The Magic of Maths) A lucid yet sophisticated look at the mathematics of probability as it's played out on gaming tables, arenas, and fields... Gamblers and math buffs alike will enjoy it for its smart approach to real-world problems. ( Kirkus Reviews) ast-moving, exciting, psychologically acute, warmly sceptical (Bryan Appleyard Sunday Times) Vastly engaging ... a tremendously enjoyable and scholarly read. (Natalie Haynes Observer) Sustaining the energy that such a topic demands for more than 600 pages, while providing a coherent answer to the question of why Rome expanded so spectacularly, is hugely ambitious. Beard succeeds triumphantly ... full of insights and delights ... SPQR is consistently enlivened by Beard's eye for detail and her excellent sense of humour. (Sunday Times) Masterful ... This is exemplary popular history, engaging but never dumbed down, providing both the grand sweep and the intimate details that bring the distant past vividly to life (Economist) Ground-breaking ... invigorating ... revolutionary ... a whole new approach to ancient history (Thomas Hodgkinson Spectator) This book is a treasure, both as a fascinating read in itself and as a fine work of reference to correct our lazy misconceptions about an ancient world that still has much to instruct us today (Herald) 
Praise for Mary Beard: 'She's pulled off that rare trick of becoming a don with a high media profile who hasn't sold out, who is absolutely respected by the academy for her scholarship ... what she says is always powerful and interesting (Guardian) An irrepressible enthusiast with a refreshing disregard for convention (FT)

The Perfect Bet: How Science and Maths are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

Humor & Entertainment

Puzzles & Games

Profile Books

An Observer Book of the Year 
A Times Science Book of the Year 
A New Statesman Book of the Year 
A Financial Times Science Book of the Year\n'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail\n'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times\nWe live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next.\nAlong the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true.\nNow revised and updated with content on Covid-19.

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop (Wellcome Collection)

Health, Fitness & Dieting

Diseases & Physical Ailments

Wellcome Collection

'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times\n'Brilliant and authoritative' - Alex Bellos, author of Alex's Adventures in Numberland\nA deadly virus suddenly explodes into the population. A political movement gathers pace, and then quickly vanishes. An idea takes off like wildfire, changing our world forever. We live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next.\nAlong the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true.

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop

Das Gesetz Der Ansteckung: Was Pandemien, Borsencrashs und Fake News gemeinsam haben / Wie sich Ideen, Trends und Krisen in der Zeit hoher Vernetzung ... Ansatzen (English and German Edition)

Science & Math

Mathematics

Hirzel Verlag

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Kucharski, Adam. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

Books by Kucharski, Adam

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Kucharski, Adam. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread--And Why They Stop

Rules of Contagion

Perfect Bet

The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

The Perfect Bet: How Science and Maths are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop (Wellcome Collection)

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop

Das Gesetz Der Ansteckung: Was Pandemien, Borsencrashs und Fake News gemeinsam haben / Wie sich Ideen, Trends und Krisen in der Zeit hoher Vernetzung ... Ansatzen (English and German Edition)