The world is in the throes of a nearly decade-long global democratic recession. Democratic breakdowns in strategically important countries like Russia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, and Venezuela are cause for serious concern, as are reversals in Turkey and Hungary. Vladimir Putin's revanchist policies in the heart of Europe highlight how domestic democratic setbacks can have serious negative regional reverberations. Is Authoritarianism Staging A Comeback? offers answers to why authoritarianism is gaining on democracy. A score of prominent democracy scholars and activists at leading universities, think tanks, and civil resistance NGOs have written essays for the book on these key questions. Is Authoritarianism Staging A Comeback? also provides advice on what kind of civil resistance efforts will work and why against authoritarianism. With clear evidence of authoritarians learning from one another, there is urgent need to rework old tools and develop new ones to help support local nonviolent civil organizations that are increasingly under pressure. The editors-Mathew Burrows and Maria J. Stephan-are leading an initiative at the Atlantic Council-rated one of the top think tanks globally-on how external actors can reverse authoritarianism's recent gains by boosting democracy's prospects. Is Authoritarianism Staging A Comeback? is one of the first fruits of that effort.

Is Authoritarianism Staging a Comeback?

Politics & Social Sciences

Burrows, Mathew

Politics & Government

Atlantic Council

'The old world is dying, the new world struggles to be born,' wrote the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci at the end of World War I. 'Now is the time of monsters.' A witness to the rise of fascism in Italy, Gramsci understood transitions can be dangerous. The world today is at a similar inflection point. With Donald Trump victorious in the 2024 US presidential election, the Western liberal order presided by the United States since the end of the Second World War is over. This timely book, by two eminent strategic forecasters, Mathew Burrows and Josef Braml, illuminates where the West and the world are headed in the wake of the November election. Weakened by recent military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan and potential setbacks in Ukraine and the Middle East, the United States is declining as a global power, even if it continues to play an outsized role on the world stage. Not since the end of the Cold War has there been so much pessimism in the West and uncertainty about the future of the world. A new set of destabilising factors - regional conflicts, climate change, the growth of AI, a global economic slowdown, endemic illegal immigration - are feeding off each other and producing more instability. Far-right and populist movements in Europe and North America thrive on this vulnerability. As the world grapples with these issues, separate conflicts in Middle East and Ukraine are threatening to shatter the nuclear weapons taboo that has held since 1945. Plus, a fragmenting global economy with the growing protectionism by the United States and China is producing a world of slower growth. A major war between the United States and China or between NATO and Russia threatens to bring an end to civilisation. But crises can also bring renewal. Take, for instance, the advent of artificial intelligence, which, like past technological revolutions, could result in better lives for millions. Or the new technologies like green energy which can help us fight climate change. Automation may eliminate some jobs but will help Western societies deal with declining populations. World to Come is a clear-eyed survey of the state of the US power and the consequences for the rest of the world. It spells out the hard choices we would need to make as we tackle the rise of nationalism, the slowdown in global economic growth and the inevitability of climate change. And it's a call to action, to ensure that the world that comes out of the end of Pax Americana is one we all want to live in.

World to Come: The Return of Trump and the End of the Old Order

Braml, Josef

Brixton Ink

Twenty-five years ago when Mathew Burrows went to work for the CIA as an intelligence analyst, the world seemed frozen. Then came the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union; suddenly, unpredictability became a universal theme and foresight was critical. For the past decade, Burrows has overseen the creation of the Global Trends report―the key futurist guide for the White House, Departments of State and Defense, and Homeland Security. Global Trends has a history of making bold predictions and being right: * In 2004, it argued that al-Qaeda's centralized operations would dissolve and be replaced by groups, cells, and individuals―the very model of the 2012 Boston bombings. * In 2008, it included a scenario dubbed October Surprise, imagining a devastating late-season hurricane hitting an unprepared New York City. In The Future, Declassified, Burrows―for the first time―has expanded the most recent Global Trends report into a full-length narrative, forecasting the tectonic shifts that will drive us to 2030. A staggering amount of wholesale change is happening―from unprecedented and widespread aging to rampant urbanization and growth in a global middle class to an eastward shift in economic power and a growing number of disruptive technologies. Even our physical geography is changing as sea levels rise and faster commercial shipping routes open up through a warming Arctic region. The book concludes with its most provocative section: four fictional paths to 2030 with imagined storylines and characters based on analysis by the most authoritative figures in the intelligence community. As Burrows argues, we are living through some of the greatest and most momentous developments in history. Either we take charge and direct those or we are at their mercy. The stakes are particularly high for America's standing in the world and for ordinary Americans who want to maintain their quality of life. Running the gamut from scary to reassuring, this riveting book is essential reading.

The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action

Social Sciences

St.Martin's Press

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