Bruce Bueno de Mesquita can predict the future. From international terrorism to corporate fraud, from climate change to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been predicting the future for decades. Using Game Theory (a theory based on the rationale that everyone acts in their own self-interest) he can foretell and even engineer events. His forecasts, for everyone from the CIA to major international companies, have an extraordinary 90% success rate. In this fascinating and immensely readable book he explains how you can use Game Theory to your own advantage - to win a legal dispute, advance your career and even get the best possible price for your car. Prediction will change your understanding of the world - both now and in the future.

Prediction: How to See and Shape the Future with Game Theory

Science & Math

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA

Mathematics

Vintage

Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong

History

David Newman

Alvin Rabushka

Asia

Yale University Press

In this landmark work, two leading theorists of international relations analyze the strategies designed to avoid international conflict. Using a combination of game theory, statistical analysis, and detailed case histories, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman evaluate the conditions that promote negotiation, the status quo, capitulation, acquiescence, and war. The authors assess two competing theories on the role that domestic politics plays in foreign policy choices: one states that national decision makers are constrained only by the exigencies of the international system, and the other views leaders as additionally constrained by domestic political considerations. Finding the second theory to be more consistent with historical events, they use it to examine enduring puzzles such as why democracies do not appear to fight one another, whether balance of power or power preponderance promotes peaceful resolution of disputes, and what conditions are necessary and sufficient for nations to cooperate with one another. They conclude by speculating about the implications of their theory for foreign policy strategies in the post-Cold War world.

War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives

Business & Money

David Lalman

Industries

Book by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Charles Dickens

TRIAL OF EBENEZER SCROOGE

Literature & Fiction

Charles, Dickens

United States

The Ohio State University Press

Red Flag over Hong Kong

Lucid and compelling, this is an essential guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. The authors begin with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" freemarket economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the world's richest territories. Based on their own expertise in policy choices and a collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors applied a scientific model of decision making to Hong Kong's unknown future.

Red Flag Over Hong Kong

Politics & Social Sciences

Social Sciences

CQ Press

In contrast to most current approaches to international politics, this work views domestic politics and international relations as inseparable and the role of individual political leaders as key. A core assumption is that political leaders and foreign policy decision makers are motivated to keep their jobs and that they select policies and allocate scarce resources so as to help them fulfill their personal political objectives.

Principles of International Politics: People's Power, Preferences, and Perceptions

Legal Theory & Systems

Cq Pr

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Politics & Government

The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics

Alastair Smith

PublicAffairs

The Spoils of War: Greed, Power, and the Conflicts That Made Our Greatest Presidents

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita can predict the future. he is a master of game theory, a rather fancy name for a simple idea: when people compete with each other they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory to foretell - and even engineer - political, financial and personal events. In fact, Bueno de Mesquita forecasts, for everyone, from the CIA to major companies, have an astonishing ninety percent success rate. In this startling and revelatory book he describes his methods and allows us to play along. Shred, provocative and original, Predictioneer will change your understanding of the world - both now and in the future. If life's a game, then Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the one essential member of your team.

Predictioneer

Bodley Head

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