Sea Level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure: Prediction, Risks, and Solutions analyzes the challenges posed by rising sea levels and climate change. Scientists estimate that global sea levels could rise by as much as 20 feet in this century, directly affecting about 100 million people worldwide. Although the problems stemming from higher sea levels are formidable, immediate actions can be identified and executed to lessen the impact of rising waters on coastal infrastructure and communities. Using a risk analysis and management framework, each chapter in this volume focuses on a facet of sea level rise, examining its associated risks and assessing its socioeconomic impact. From this information, appropriate long-term measures and mitigation strategies can be developed. Chapters consider such questions as: How can we model the impact of rising sea levels and increasingly intense tropical storms on coastal infrastructure? What strategies can be phased in to improve new construction? How can existing infrastructure best be targeted for retrofitting? How can risk models be designed to accommodate regional socioeconomic considerations? Engineers, scientists, and policymakers concerned with planning, design, and construction of coastal infrastructure will find this compact assessment useful, relevant, and thought-provoking.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure: Prediction, Risks and Solutions (Cdrm Monographs) (Monograph / Asce Council on Disaster Risk Management)

Business & Money

Bilal M. Ayyub

Michael S. Kearney

Insurance

Amer Society of Civil Engineers

Civil infrastructure systems traditionally have been designed for appropriate functionality, durability, and safety for climate and weather extremes during their full-service lives; however, climate scientists inform us that the extremes of climate and weather have altered from historical values in ways difficult to predict or project. Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Adaptive Design and Risk Management, MOP 140, provides guidance for and contributes to the developing or enhancing of methods for infrastructure analysis and design in a world in which risk profiles are changing and can be projected with varying degrees of uncertainty requiring a new design philosophy to meet this challenge. The underlying approaches in this manual of practice (MOP) are based on probabilistic methods for quantitative risk analysis, and the design framework provided focuses on identifying and analyzing low-regret, adaptive strategies to make a project more resilient. Beginning with an overview of the driving forces and hazards associated with a changing climate, subsequent chapters in MOP 140 provide observational methods, illustrative examples, and case studies; estimation of extreme events particularly related to precipitation with guidance on monitoring and measuring methods; flood design criteria and the development of project design flood elevations; computational methods of determining flood loads; adaptive design and adaptive risk management in the context of life-cycle engineering and economics; and climate resilience technologies.

Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Adaptive Design and Risk Management (ASCE Manuals and Reports on Engineering Practice Book 140)

Engineering & Transportation

Committee on Adaptation to a Changing Climate

Engineering

American Society of Civil Engineers

Sponsored by the Infrastructure Resilience Division of ASCE A large portion of the world's population, infrastructure, and wealth is concentrated in locations prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts, floods, and storms, so infrastructure resilience and sustainability as system characteristics are necessary for societal endurance and survival. Enhancing infrastructure at the element, system, network, and community levels will lead not only to massive savings and conservation of resources through efficiencies but also through risk reduction to life, property, and environment, and expeditious recovery in case of natural disasters. Hazard-Resilient Infrastructure: Analysis and Design, MOP 144,provides guidance and an underlying framework for creating consistency across hazards, systems, and sectors in the design of new infrastructure systems. The book also discusses enhancing the resilience of existing systems and relates this framework to the economics associated with system lifecycle, including organizational and socioeconomic considerations. This MOP uses probabilistic methods for risk analysis and management of infrastructure projects to address uncertainties within a planning horizon timeframe effectively. This approach includes identifying and analyzing hazards, system failures, associated probabilities and consequences including direct and indirect losses, failure and recovery profiles quantification of resilience, effects on communities, economics of resilience, and technologies for enhancing resilience for new, as well as existing infrastructure. Examples and cases studies are also included. Engineers, planners, researchers, and other community stakeholders will benefit from this manual as they make assessment, and planning and design decisions related to all types of hazards and infrastructure.

Hazard-Resilient Infrastructure: Analysis and Design (Manual of Practice Book 144) (ASCE Manual and Reports on Engineering Practice, 144)

Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences

GEORGE J. KLIR

Chapman and Hall/CRC

This is a NAVAL SURFACE WARFARE CENTER CARDEROCK DIV BETHESDA MD report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A137193. The abstract provided by the Pentagon follows: This document contains guidance to design surface ship structures against fatigue failure. In engineering terms, fatigue describes the initiation and growth of cracks and associated damage accumulation which may occur under cyclic loads and their effect on the service life of a structural member. Ships are subjected to fatigue cycles primarily by the action of seawater waves. The guidance provided in this report applies to naval monohull ships of conventional hull form, construction and material. For conventional hull forms, the procedure provides maximum permissible primary design stresses as a function of ship type and structural detail. General guidance is provided for other non- conventional ships. The permissible stresses are based on benchmark analyses of different types of U.S. Navy surface combatants that have successfully completed their service lives without experiencing fatigue crack initiation. A "design" operating scenario in the North Atlantic was chosen for the analyses. For the fatigue damage calculations, a limited number of days is determined to be equivalent to the actual lifetime operating conditions which result in a fatigue life equal to the service life. Results are presented in terms of permissible stress levels and stress concentration factors.

Fatigue Design Guidance for Surface Ships

Storming Media

Probability, Statistics, and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists

Richard H. McCuen

Taylor&Francis

Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge and ignorance, how to model and analyze uncertainty, and how to select appropriate analytical tools for particular problems. This volume covers primary components of ignorance and their impact on practice and decision making. It provides an overview of the current state of uncertainty modeling and analysis, and reviews emerging theories while emphasizing practical applications in science and engineering. The book introduces fundamental concepts of classical, fuzzy, and rough sets, probability, Bayesian methods, interval analysis, fuzzy arithmetic, interval probabilities, evidence theory, open-world models, sequences, and possibility theory. The authors present these methods to meet the needs of practitioners in many fields, emphasizing the practical use, limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of the methods.

Economics

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Books by Bilal M. Ayyub