Supersonic (Airliner) Non-Sense : A Case Study in Applied Market Research

Since the dramatic flight by "Chuck" Yeager in 1947, when an aircraft first exceeded the speed of sound, the dream of a successful supersonic airliner has captivated the interest of many manufacturers & of many governments. But as yet, only a few concordes & a couple of Tupolev Tu-144s have gone into service, on a very few routes & none were ever sold. The cost of developing any supersonic airliner is prohibitive. The prospect of their being able to operate economically is remote. The market for such an aircraft (which would have to charge premium fares, even more than first class) is very small. Manufacturers & government agencies alike continue to base their multi-million research programs on inflated market "estimates" that combine substantial elements of special pleading & wishful thinking. Statements invariably include a plethora of "shoulds" & "coulds" in their predictions; but their assumptions carry little weight, as they are ill-supported by known data. The conclusions drawn to produce market "estimates" of more than a thousand aircraft neither clear-headed nor objective. This book, written by an experienced analyst who spent most of his career in commercial airline market research & traffic forecasting, explodes the myth. The analysis draws upon known facts, applies simple arithmetic & makes assumptions that are based on technical, operational & commercial sense.