The Strange Ways of Chance: A Lay Guide to Uncertainty in Medicine, Sports, Finance, Crime, and More

This book is a layperson's introduction to the mathematics of chance but with just a little of the math. The idea is to help the reader untangle the plethora of often misleading data and sometimes dubious claims that appear in the world of politics, finance, medicine and public health, sports, criminal trials, and the like. It is relevant to current events with many quotes from newspaper articles. This is not a textbook, and no special requirements are assumed on the part of the reader other than an interest in public affairs, curiosity about how to interpret the many statements that he or she confronts in the media, and a willingness to engage in some quantitative reasoning. The idea is to survey the conundrums and confusion engendered by the intrusion of chance into the public discourse where the consequences can be counter-intuitive and unexpected. To keep it simple, the few technicalities that arise are explained in the notes at end of each chapter, but this material is purely optional and is intended for those readers who are undaunted by the notation.