The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War

There is a need for the United States to move the debate over the challenge China presents us beyond the dispositions of the attention grabbing advocates: the rationalizers who explain Chinese actions in benign terms with their own political or academic motives, or the denigrators, who are "The Chinese Are Coming" school-to wit: China is belligerent, a threat, in short, a monster. It is increasingly important for Americans to think carefully about the vast complexities of the U.S.-China relationship, and the calculations that go into forming courses of action. The Chinese have to consider some of the same realities we do when planning military actions and strategy. The key question is: will China's so-called first priority of economic development and its resulting influence on domestic social stability curtail China's continuing reliance on military force as a means of exerting its influence? In addition, will economic development enhance China's comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China's more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism? The rationalizers often say security and sovereignty will always trump economic determinism, others insist economic factors will change China-and thus decrease the chances of war, especially with China winning the 2008 Olympics. How this dilemma is managed by the United States, China, and Taiwan will affect the future of Asia, and perhaps the world. We have tried to present in this book factual and analytical essays which stress the need for squarely addressing these questions. So, this volume should make a valuable contribution by addressing the issue of what would be at stake for China if Beijing were to pursue military solutions. The chapters that follow were originally presented at a conference at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) held in December 2000. It is the tenth annual conference on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) that I have organized under the auspices of the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. This is the third PLA conference volume to be published by the USAWC Strategic Studies Institute. I commend it to you. Ambassador James R. Lilley Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute