The Dragon's Shadow: the Rise of China and Japan's New Nationalism

Japan's era of Friendship Diplomacy with China developed and flourised in the aftermath of Japan's World War II defeat and flourished in the unique circumstances of the Cold War. However, Friendship Diplomacy succeeded only so long as Japan maintained a penitent and conciliatory policy towards China and abjured militarism, and China at least tacitly recognized Japan's regional leadership position and remained dependent on Japanese aid, investment and trade. The end of the Cold War roughly coincided with China's explosion of economic growth and the bursting of Japan's bubble economy of the late 1980s and the onset of economic stagnation. The Friendship paradigm could not survive the emerging sense of threat from China and North Korea, which fueled Japan's "reluctant realism" and reawakened nationalism. In these circumstances, Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's visits to the Yasukuni Shrine touched a deep nerve and created mutual estrangement. The election of the populist-nationalist Abe Shinzo as prime minister in September 2006 both confirmed Japan's new direction and offered the possibility of reestablishing normal and cooperative, if not friendly relations. In light of North Korea's newly demonstrated nuclear capability, the peace and security of Northeast Asia may hang in the balance.