The Great Fiscal Experiment

Massive growth in the federal budget deficit over the 1980s provides economists with a rare natural experiment to test their theoretical expectations about the relationship among the budget deficit, the trade deficit, interest rates, and the domestic economy. This conference volume enables six distinguished analysts and their discussants to review the lessons learned and to assess the accuracy of supply-side expectations. Rudolph G. Penner's opening essay reviews the history and synthesizes the points made by the other authors and commentators. Contributors are "John F. Helliwell" writing on the fiscal and the external deficit with commentary by "John Williamson" and "Jacob A. Frenkel; James R. Barth, George Iden, Frank S. Russek," and "Mark Wohar" on the effects of federal budget deficits on interest rates and the composition of domestic output with commentary by "Frank de Leeuw;" and "George M. von Furstenberg" on taxation and expenditures with commentary by "William A. Niskanen" and "Edward M. Gramlich."