A Rand study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power

History

Libicki, Martin C.

Morgan, Forrest E.

Hagen, Jeff

DeLuca, Paul

Heginbotham, Eric

Nixon, Michael

Heim, Jacob L.

Li, Sheng

Engstrom, Jeffrey

Shlapak, David A.

Frelinger, David R.

Laird, Burgess

Brady, Kyle

Morris, Lyle J.

Asia

RAND Corporation

China’s approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first test in 1964, but it has recently accelerated nuclear force modernization. China’s strategic environment is likely to grow more complex, and nuclear constituencies are gaining a larger bureaucratic voice. Beijing is unlikely to change official nuclear policies but will probably increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence and may adjust the definition of key concepts.

China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States

Chase, Michael S.

Lin, Bonny

Twomey, Christopher P.

Garafola, Cristina L.

Cozad, Mark R.

Berkowitz, Samuel K.

The return of great-power competition has highlighted the risks of conflict with nuclear-armed great powers. Such a conflict would entail escalation risks that the United States has not seriously considered since the Cold War. Using three historical case studies, the authors examine decisionmakers' ability to identify adversary thresholds and to apply this information to control escalation during militarized crises between nuclear-armed states.

Managing Escalation: Lessons and Challenges from Three Historical Crises Between Nuclear-Armed Powers

Ellinger, Emily

Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Nathan

Evans, Alexandra T.

Burdette, Zachary

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Books by Heim, Jacob L.